A pivotal week in American politics has arrived, with far-reaching consequences for Donald Trump's second presidency, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, which is seeking to rebuild after a devastating 2024 election defeat.
The government shutdown, now in its 34th day, is about to break records, but the real cost is the suffering of millions of Americans. With no paychecks, the risk of losing healthcare, and vital food assistance, the impact is devastating.
"It's as if the government doesn't care. The holidays are coming, and people will go hungry. This is the land of opportunity, and it doesn't feel like it," Janis, a federal worker and military veteran's granddaughter, told CNN.
Trump, seemingly oblivious to the political fallout, hosted a lavish "Great Gatsby"-themed Halloween party at his Florida club, boasting about renovations at the White House. He appears unconcerned about the shutdown's potential damage to his reputation, especially among those already disillusioned with his second term.
In a combative interview, Trump showed no signs of compromise, describing Democrats as "crazed lunatics" and insisting they will eventually have to capitulate and reopen the government. He has complicated matters by demanding Senate Republicans eliminate the filibuster rule, allowing a simple majority vote to reopen the government, a move that worries GOP leaders.
"The Republicans need to toughen up. If we end the filibuster, we can do whatever we want. We won't lose power," Trump declared on "60 Minutes."
The bitter political divide that led to the shutdown will take a new turn with key elections on Tuesday. These elections, along with the deepening shutdown crisis, will play out against the backdrop of chaos and extremes of the second Trump era.
Voters will deliver their verdict on Trump's second term in Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, where Democrats lead. In New York, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani could emerge as a new political talent, splitting the party between those wary of his politics and those excited by his youth. A Mamdani victory would also provide a new foil for Trump, who portrays him as the far-left face of the Democratic Party.
In California, voters will decide on a proposal to redraw congressional maps to favor Democrats, similar to Trump's moves in Texas and elsewhere ahead of next year's midterms. Approval would be a significant boost for Governor Gavin Newsom, who aims to claim a national leadership role ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run.
The elections and the shutdown's deepening pain will unfold as the Supreme Court hears arguments over Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, which sparked a global trade war. The Court's decision could lead to a showdown with the executive branch or confirm Trump's claim of emergency powers, further expanding presidential authority.
Underlying these issues is the question of whether Trump is illegally exercising powers not granted by the Constitution. This crisis escalates with the administration's strikes against alleged drug traffickers' boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, accused of extrajudicial killings and acting without congressional consent. The White House has offered no justification to the American people and has banned military officials from discussing the strikes with Congress without prior approval.
On Capitol Hill, the pressure to end the shutdown is mounting. The reality of rising healthcare premiums for Affordable Care Act policyholders is hitting home, with the start of open enrollment. Democrats sought to use their leverage in the Senate to force a showdown and coerce Republicans into action, but by shutting down the government, they precipitated the furloughing of millions of federal employees and the potential loss of food stamps for over 40 million people.
Democrats accuse Trump of withholding emergency funding for food stamps, claims validated by federal judges. However, the extreme disruption and costs of the shutdown are scrambling political calculations, and neither party may emerge with a clear victory.
"It's unfortunate that Donald Trump and Republicans have decided to weaponize hunger and withhold SNAP benefits," Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN.
Yet Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson pointed out that the broader deprivation caused by the shutdown would not have occurred had Democrats agreed to reopen the government first.
"I don't know how they can believe they're winning if it were indeed a game to them," Johnson said. He claimed Trump was desperate to reopen the government and had offered negotiations, but the sticking point remains the Democrat's distrust of such offers.
Trump said he was ready to fix the Obamacare subsidies problem, but offered no detailed plan to make healthcare more affordable. Some senators have discussed funding the government temporarily, but Trump's demand to eradicate the filibuster suggests he won't back down.
Warning signs are mounting for Trump and Republicans. Polls show that extending Obamacare subsidies, the Democrats' top demand, is popular. Voters blame Trump and the GOP more than Democrats for the shutdown, and the president's approval rating is low.
However, public disdain for Democrats complicates their efforts to exploit Trump's troubles. A significant challenge for Democrats is balancing the pain of citizens risking healthcare loss with the suffering of those who could lose nutrition benefits, effectively forced into this position by Trump's hardline tactics.
Democratic Senator John Fetterman wants to reopen the government to address healthcare and food assistance crises. "I fully support these things, but this is the wrong tactic. By shutting down the government, we're getting neither. Reopen it, and we can find a way forward," Fetterman said.
This week's intriguing question is whether a Democratic sweep in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and California's redistricting initiative will reshape Republican shutdown tactics. Republicans might panic a year before the midterms.
House Speaker Johnson, who would lose his job if Democrats win back the House, insists the impasse could end as the opposition party no longer needs to use it as an issue. However, a rank-and-file Republican warns that making healthcare more affordable is crucial once the government reopens, as the midterms will be much harder if Republicans do nothing.
The cost of living and Trump's perceived excesses have shaped campaigning ahead of Tuesday's elections. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger said, "Virginia voters can and will send a message amid the recklessness and heartlessness out of Washington."
Former President Barack Obama campaigned in Virginia and New Jersey, confirming his status as one of the few national Democratic stars, but also highlighting the party's need for new voices.
